The
question is on everyone's lips in Israel. What can Hamas possibly
hope to gain from this latest round in the conflict? Can't they see
that they are out-gunned and outmatched? How can they possibly hope
to win this war?
The
sad and horrible truth is, they are winning. They are winning and
their victory, in this round and in previous rounds of the conflict
are tangible and measurable.
While
it is true that Hamas has suffered more casualties, and their
physical infrastructure is being decimated, none of these are factors
in defeating Hamas. In fact, the opposite is true, for these factors
actually play into the overall long term strategy of Hamas.
Yes,
Hamas has a strategy. And that is the main reason for their success.
They have goals and they are meeting them.
From
a strategic perspective, the main difference between Hamas and Israel
is that Hamas knows what it wants and is prepared for a long drawn
out conflict that could take decades to achieve its goals. Israel,
as a society, doesn't know what it wants, except that it wants “it,”
to stop, and thus is not prepared for any sustained campaign. Israel
wants quiet; it is not seeking victory. Not only isn't Israel
seeking to victory, it isn't even sure how to define that victory.
Hamas'
goal is clear. It wants to eradicate the State of Israel. It wants
to destroy the Jewish dream of redemption and replace it with another
Arab Muslim state. Frankly their goal isn't any different from that
of the Palestinian Authority, which is why they are able to work
together, using different tactics to achieve the same strategic
objectives. They recognize that the fulfillment of their is not
immediately achievable, but they are willing to accomplish their
objectives in stages.
To
this end, Hamas' current “military” objectives are two fold.
They want to wear Israel society down, to disrupt the daily live of
the Israelis, and to increase the tension and anxiety of the average
Israeli. They want Israel to despair of having a quiet “normal”
life. Their second objective to “expose” Israel as the oppressor
and aggressor, in their own society, in Israeli society and in the
eyes of the world. The more damage Israel does, the more citizens
Israel kills, accomplishes this goal, no matter how much “restrain”
Israel uses, or the reasons for the casualties.
Israel
continually plays into the hand of Palestinians. Israel allows Hamas
to define the conflict, and set the rules of engagement. Israel is
always reacting, defending. It is never proactive; It doesn't define
and achieve clearly defined military goals. Israel hasn't any
strategic vision for success. Instead, Israel continually stresses
that its operation is limited, continually tries to legitimize every
action, agonizes over every casualty, theirs and ours, and apologize
for any perceived excess.
The
longer the conflict persists, the more Israel's position is eroded.
Hamas
can be confident that Israel will not eliminate the organization.
Other organizations and states (including Israel) will pay for the
rebuilding of the physical infrastructure.
Israel
is as afraid of winning the conflict as it is of losing.
The
more Israel acts like a foreign occupier and not the legitimate
indigenous nation, the more it justifies the others claims. The
more it cedes territory and position in an effort to be “fair and
just,” the more it undermines its own existence.
As
long as there are two competing claims to the same land, there will
never be quiet, there will always be tension and conflict, and the
more Israel accepts the others claim, the more it undermines its own.
Israel
really has only one choice if it wants to survive, and that is to
claim and take ownership and control of all the territory between the
Jordan River and the Sea. The sixty year War of Attrition must be
brought to a conclusion. It must apply its sovereignty to all its
territories and eradicate any competing claimant. That would be the
only way to insure peace. Any other “solution” will only bring
Israel the quiet of the grave.
