What Can Hamas Possibly Hope to Gain?

The question is on everyone's lips in Israel. What can Hamas possibly hope to gain from this latest round in the conflict? Can't they see that they are out-gunned and outmatched? How can they possibly hope to win this war?

The sad and horrible truth is, they are winning. They are winning and their victory, in this round and in previous rounds of the conflict are tangible and measurable.

While it is true that Hamas has suffered more casualties, and their physical infrastructure is being decimated, none of these are factors in defeating Hamas. In fact, the opposite is true, for these factors actually play into the overall long term strategy of Hamas.

Yes, Hamas has a strategy. And that is the main reason for their success. They have goals and they are meeting them.

From a strategic perspective, the main difference between Hamas and Israel is that Hamas knows what it wants and is prepared for a long drawn out conflict that could take decades to achieve its goals. Israel, as a society, doesn't know what it wants, except that it wants “it,” to stop, and thus is not prepared for any sustained campaign. Israel wants quiet; it is not seeking victory. Not only isn't Israel seeking to victory, it isn't even sure how to define that victory.

Hamas' goal is clear. It wants to eradicate the State of Israel. It wants to destroy the Jewish dream of redemption and replace it with another Arab Muslim state. Frankly their goal isn't any different from that of the Palestinian Authority, which is why they are able to work together, using different tactics to achieve the same strategic objectives. They recognize that the fulfillment of their is not immediately achievable, but they are willing to accomplish their objectives in stages.

To this end, Hamas' current “military” objectives are two fold. They want to wear Israel society down, to disrupt the daily live of the Israelis, and to increase the tension and anxiety of the average Israeli. They want Israel to despair of having a quiet “normal” life. Their second objective to “expose” Israel as the oppressor and aggressor, in their own society, in Israeli society and in the eyes of the world. The more damage Israel does, the more citizens Israel kills, accomplishes this goal, no matter how much “restrain” Israel uses, or the reasons for the casualties.

Israel continually plays into the hand of Palestinians. Israel allows Hamas to define the conflict, and set the rules of engagement. Israel is always reacting, defending. It is never proactive; It doesn't define and achieve clearly defined military goals. Israel hasn't any strategic vision for success. Instead, Israel continually stresses that its operation is limited, continually tries to legitimize every action, agonizes over every casualty, theirs and ours, and apologize for any perceived excess.

The longer the conflict persists, the more Israel's position is eroded.

Hamas can be confident that Israel will not eliminate the organization. Other organizations and states (including Israel) will pay for the rebuilding of the physical infrastructure.

Israel is as afraid of winning the conflict as it is of losing.

The more Israel acts like a foreign occupier and not the legitimate indigenous nation, the more it justifies the others claims. The more it cedes territory and position in an effort to be “fair and just,” the more it undermines its own existence.

As long as there are two competing claims to the same land, there will never be quiet, there will always be tension and conflict, and the more Israel accepts the others claim, the more it undermines its own.

Israel really has only one choice if it wants to survive, and that is to claim and take ownership and control of all the territory between the Jordan River and the Sea. The sixty year War of Attrition must be brought to a conclusion. It must apply its sovereignty to all its territories and eradicate any competing claimant. That would be the only way to insure peace. Any other “solution” will only bring Israel the quiet of the grave.